Insurance and Climate Change  

Posted by Big Gav

Joel Makower at WorldChanging has a column that talks about something that I like to point out occasionally - the driving force behind our adoption of efforts to mitigate global warming may be the insurance industry - once they start passing on the costs of this problem to people and companies, the need to abandon fossil fuel consumption will become apparent to us all (and eventually to our benighted governments).

If government policies won't lead to aggressive action on climate change, maybe the insurance industry will.

It seems to have gone largely unreported in the U.S., but in the past week, two developments have shaken the largely staid world of insurance. On Tuesday, preliminary estimates released by the Munich Re Foundation at the international climate conference in Montreal found that world has suffered more than $200 billion in weather-related economic losses over the past year, making 2005 the costliest year on record.

Just days before, 20 leading U.S. investors urged 30 of the largest publicly-held insurance companies in North America to disclose their financial exposure from climate change and steps they are taking to reduce those financial impacts. The group cited the enormous risks that insurance companies face from escalating losses caused by extreme weather events and the financial risks and opportunities associated with climate change.

The recent talks in Montreal on the follow on treaty to replace Kyoto enabled our Environment Minister - Senator Campbell, who has recently shown some signs of understanding the problem - to indulge in some stupid politicking (although he did come up with a colourful quote, predicting the "heat death" of the world if we don't do something). While I understand the government's problem - we have a large current account deficit and coal is a major export earner for us (and I imagine coal mining companies are welcome donors to Liberal party coffers), it seems that sticking our heads in the sand and chanting "clean coal will save us" is a pretty pathetic way of remaining in denial, as well as being likely to cost us in the long run - both in terms of becoming a pariah amongst developed nations and lagging behind the rest of the world in adopting clean technologies, which means we'll be paying for technology from overseas instead of giving local industry a chance to develop. There's nothing I detest more than deliberately shortsighted people - although his bizarre attempt to paint wind as "old technology" and coal as "new technology" must deserve some sort of prize for newspeak.
The world would be condemned to a "hot death" if it did not pursue so-called clean coal technologies and attempts to tackle global warming should not come at the expense of economic growth, according to federal Environment Minister Ian Campbell. He also said there was no real upside into pumping more money into old technologies such as wind turbines.

Senator Campbell yesterday welcomed a decision by the 157 countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol on climate change to begin a new round of negotiations to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, he did not budge from Australia's decision to continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, such as coal.

"Coal and fossil fuels will still be a part of the future needs of the world in 80 years' time," Senator Campbell told The Age en route to Australia from the climate change negotiations in Montreal.

"You have to do renewables … but if you don't focus on cleaning up fossil fuels you are condemning the world to a hot death," Senator Campbell said. He said evidence that burning fossil fuels was changing the world's climate was becoming "irrefutable" but "the fact is we want strong economic growth … people want secure jobs".

Australia and the US have refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, pushing instead for voluntary agreements. Last week Senator Campbell claimed Kyoto was almost buried and that other countries were realising Australia was right not to join.

However, nearly every industrialised nation agreed on Saturday to engage in talks aimed at producing a new set of binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions that would take effect from 2012.

MOF has a post on the talks called "Emissions Accomplished" which notes our ingloroius spin attempts and has a brief quote from Bill Clinton showing Senator Campbell how it should be done.
International climate talks in Montreal: U.S. Delegation Walks Out. The U.S. and Australia are blocking any Kyoto successor. A decent press roundup with a debug of the Australian spin is in this WaPo World Opinion.

Flying in an ex U.S. president on short notice was a bit of a stunt, but of course it didn´t change anything:
"I think it's crazy for us to play games with our children's future," Mr. Clinton said. "We know what's happening to the climate, we have a highly predictable set of consequences if we continue to pour greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and we know we have an alternative that will lead us to greater prosperity."

But maybe this gave a realistic impression:
The National Environmental Trust distributed custom-printed noise-making rubber whoopee cushions printed with a caricature of President Bush and the words "Emissions Accomplished."




Grist has a couple of interesting posts on the topic - "As the World Spurns - U.S. attacked on three fronts for obstructing climate action" and "Let's Take This Slow on the Road - Campaign by right-wing U.S. group aims to derail E.U. climate policy" which looks at a campaign to try and white-ant the effort to do the only thing which may work in the long run - enforceable caps on emissions which get reduced over time rather than wishful thinking and hot-air communiques.
American lobbyist Chris Horner is trying to convince major European companies to join a campaign against the Kyoto Protocol and any future such strategies to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases -- but he's not making much headway. Horner is a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the right-wing Washington think tank known for arguing against the scientific consensus on global warming -- and getting lots of funding from ExxonMobil. He's been talking to Ford Europe, German mega-utility RWE, and other E.U. firms in hopes of forming a coalition of companies, journalists, academics, and others to promote opposition to greenhouse-gas emissions caps -- similar to an industry-backed anti-Kyoto effort in the U.S. during the late 1990s. "I don't know why it's surprising [I have lobbied European companies]," he told the Independent. "What is surprising to me is why it's not working." Both Ford Europe and RWE say they don't back Horner's plan.

Elsewhere the BBC reports that the Inuit are sueing the US over their climate policy (and its resultant effects on the Inuit and other arctic inhabitants, with arctic ice rapidly disappearing).

TreeHugger has a report than Leonardo DiCaprio's latest project is a Global Warming film called "11th Hour".
Leonardo DiCaprio is teaming up with Tree Media Group to produce a documentary about global environmental issues. TMG is a production company formed with the mission to use media to support and sustain civil society. The feature length film, 11th Hour focuses on global warming and solutions to the climate change crisis. The movie is set to be released in Fall of '06.

WorldChanging has an interesting post called "Energy Efficiency and Intensity", which notes some positive trends in US carbon emission. For some reason the cynic in me wonders how much of this is attributable to US heavy industry and manufacturing moving offshore and the local economy becoming more dependent on service industry jobs. Home loan flipping is probably a bit less energy intensive than making cars.
Carbon dioxide output from the United States will peak and then begin to fall in just a few years, according to the numbers derived by John Whitehead at the Environmental Economics blog. The reason is that carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon produced per dollar of GDP -- is dropping at a rate faster than GDP is growing. At the current pace of intensity reduction, CO2 output in the US will peak in 2008, and begin a gradual decline thereafter. (We previously discussed carbon intensity here.)

This is good news for a number of reasons, not least that it suggests that the current biggest contributor to the greenhouse effect could, with a bit more effort, achieve a far more dramatic reduction in CO2. How to do this is a mainstay of discussion at WorldChanging; here's a look at some of the numbers underlying these options. CO2 intensity is a function of two components: the energy required per dollar equivalent of GDP (or use efficiency of energy); and the CO2 output per MW equivalent of energy (or carbon efficiency of energy). By taking a closer look at the data, we can see which one has mattered more -- and which could stand some improvement.

WorldChanging also has a post up on Google Transit, which makes life easier for people trying to work out how to get around (in Oregon anyway - hopefully this one quickly spreads to attain worldwide coverage).
One of the biggest obstacles to people using public transportation is learning how the system works--where to go, when to go, etc. Any transit agency worth its salt has trip-planning tools available online, but they generally suffer from poor-to-horrible interfaces, due to lack of development money. This keeps riders away due to confusion. Even if a good system exists in one city, it is always different from that of another city, and newcomers won't know where to find it. Having transit trip-planning data readable and presentable by a clean, easy-to-understand, universal tool will make a big difference. It looks like that's starting to happen.

Google now does public transit. At least, it does for Portland, Oregon.

For those who can't get used to the idea of public transport (or don't have access to any) TreeHugger has a spot on the new Camry hybrid that Toyota will be releasing shortly. TreeHugger also has a post on "Flexible, Ultra-Thin Solar Panels for Hybrids" which would help improve hybrid mileage even further.

One peak oil related note - the Narcosphere (which isn't the most mainstream of sources, though Google Alerts is happy enough to report its output) has pointed out that Latin America's oil production is past its peak (although this data is from the ASPO and doesn't include Venezuelan heavy oil).
Latin America’s production of conventional oil reached its peak during the last decade and is now in a process of inexorable decline, according to data released by ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.

Considering all of Latin America, ASPO’s data points out that the region reached its oil production peak in 1998, while the peak of oil discovery came in 1977. Normally, any oil producing region, be it a single field or an entire continent, reaches its peak production rate some time after discoveries reach their maximum. ASPO’s data is consistent with that methodology.

While the data relies on public sources and is subject to rounding, ASPO claims that its compilation is a useful tool to determine the general oil production trend. Latin America’s oil deposits are depleting at a rate of 3.3% per annum, according to the data.

Taken together, Latin American countries produce approximately 7.5 million barrels of oil per day. ASPO estimates that the region held 192 billion barrels before exploration began, of which 110 billion have been extracted so far.

The leading producer, Mexico, produced in 2004 about 3.5 million barrels per day and had an annual depletion rate of 5.0%. Venezuela produced about 2 million barrels per day with an annual depletion rate of 3.2%

Earlier this year various publications, including the Mexican daily La Jornada, reported that Mexico’s biggest oil field, the supergiant Cantarell in Campeche Sound, had reached its production peak.

And to close, I may as well mention this weekend's ugly events from Sydney's southern beaches. Crikey's Stephen Feneley wonders if our new anti-terror laws will be invoked against those responsible (the rioters, not the tabloids and talk show hosts):
It seems those anti-terror laws were passed just in the nick of time. All those cosmopolitan elites who said we didn't need laws against the incitement of racial violence should be hanging their heads in shame over their skinny decaf lattes today in the wake of the outbreak of Skip-on-Leb violence on Sydney's beaches. How shameful that anyone could have questioned the Attorney General's determination to rush these laws through Parliament.

The awful violence at Cronulla and Maroubra was proof of the threat posed to our democracy by evil forces (in this case pissed white Cronulla home-boys) determined to stir up hatred against people for no other reason than their suspected ethnicity or religion. No doubt federal authorities – armed with the new anti-terror laws and with the full backing of Mr Ruddock – will move swiftly to track down and prosecute the malevolent ringleaders responsible for sending those text messages that drew the rioting yobs to the beach yesterday afternoons.

I am joking of course. It's unlikely Ruddock would want the laws used in this case, although it might have been different had those text messages originated from a mobile belonging to someone of middle-eastern appearance. Even though the anti-incitement provisions of the legislation are ideally suited for this event, it's a safe bet no one in the Government ever thought a situation would arise where the wrong-doers would fit the profile of Howard battlers.

Before Paul Sheahan of the Sydney Morning Herald accuses me of turning a blind eye to the behaviour of people he refers to as Lebanese gangstas, I am not excusing violence perpetrated by anyone. The people who beat up on the lifeguards at Cronulla on the previous weekend should be caught and prosecuted.

However there seems little doubt that the incitement of yesterday's violence was the the work of people who regard themselves as true blue Aussies. This kind of white-bread fundamentalism wasn't in the Ruddock/Howard script when they whipped up hysteria about the threat lurking within our midst in order to justify their stupid and contemptible laws.

Dark clouds ahead ?

8 comments

Actually, it is ppm.

Wretchard has some interesting commentary on the recent Muslim riots, and his readers have links to local publications with even more un-PC opinions.

The Lebanese Christian woman who called the MSM for refusing to name the perps of the beach harassment and guerrila raids as Muslim (and implicitly including her among the perps when she should have been excluded) is part of the awakening that's occurring.  The government and media will no longer be able to pretend that "multiculturalism" is anything other than idiocy.

Finally.

John - I like the constrained optimisation problem idea - the intensity numbers are fairly meaningless if you consider eGDP growth (and I'm not sure they were discounting for inflation either).

E-P - Obviously I'm not going to insist anyone else be PC in my comments as I probably skate on fairly thin ice here and there.

But I think you're wrong (unless it turns out we're just quibbling over the definition of multiculturalism).

As for links to non-PC local publications, I live in Sydney and I can turn on the top rated radio show (2GB which was linked to at your post, and they had a large hand in basically organising the pogrom last weekend) or read the tabloid papers to get that viewpoint - its neither uncommon nor confined to the internet.

Winston Churchill once said Australians were unreliable soldiers because we have too much Irish in us.

A century ago (and earlier) it was Irish and Chinese who were considered "the problem" here - unable to assimilate and hostile to the English way of life.

When I was a little kid it was Italians and Greeks, by the time I was a teenager it was "Asians" (mostly Vietnamese). Now its people from "the middle east".

Its always the same story (and the US experience has been pretty similar as far as I can tell).

Eventually - once people have moved out of ethnic enclaves, climbed the economic ladder a bit and assimilated into the local community (partly by adopting local customs and partly becuase the natives get used to the presence of the newcomers) everything goes back to normal until the next wave of migrants arrives...

That said, there is a bad gang problem in predominately Lebanese areas which does require some fairly serious work from the police to keep in check - and the local community there does need to work to get some of their stupider and more aggressive elements under control.

The situation isn't helped by the immigration rate being so high (and this is mainly because of pressure from the big business lobby) which has resulted in various parts of Sydney starting to become modern day "ghettoes" of various ethnic groups.

I think in some ways national cultures are a bit like the atmosphere - they can absorb a certain amount of new "material" safely, but if the inflow rate gets too high the ability to absorb it breaks down (Tom Robbins once called this - and the wording isn't ideal but it makes the point - "cesspool multiculturalism" rather than "melting pot multiculturalism").

The solution to that particular issue is to keep the immigration rate at a reasonable level, and to make sure the intake comes from as wide a variety of places as possible so that you don't get a large build up of any particular nationality.

Another problem with Lebanese migrants is that they came from a country which had been in the grip of a fairly vicious civil war for a long time (and isn't entirely stable today) which probably hasn't helped matters.

Lastly (and call me PC or tinfoil if you like - but I've been observing this for a while now) they are probably suffering from something of a siege mentality given the endless wave of anti-muslim propaganda we get bathed in. And at the end of the day the reason that atmosphere exists is to make sure we're ready to do what we need to to control middle eastern oil. And the solution to that is to remove our dependence on oil so we can politically (and militarily) disengage with the region and happily ignore one another...

I shall never shed a tear for insurance companies. They have managed to mystify you. Of course claims have arisen. As they extend their claims liability, at the same rate of claim the money paid out on claims rises.

Self fulfilling prophecy.

In UK the official figures show domestic fire paid claims represent about 20% of premium income and is dropping annually.

I'm not shedding a tear for insurance companies and nor am I mystified by them (in fact I know rather a lot about the insurance business).

I'm just pointing out that the actuaries will make us pay for the damage global warming does to our collective property - and that this may eventually force us to take the sort of steps we should be taking purely out of foresight rather than waiting for premiums to rise so high that the pain makes us do something to make them fall again...

Siege mentality... among the Muslims?!  Go read this if you think so.  Read the whole thing.

I fear that you're mistaking the old-style immigrant for the new.  They are very different:

1.  The old-style immigrant came from a western-European background; the new comes from a very different background.
2.  The old-style immigrant attempted to assimilate; the new consciously tries to keep apart.
3.  The old-style immigrant was from a generally Christian culture and tried to get along; the new is Muslim and gets lots of propaganda from the Internet, satellite TV and even the Saudi-trained imam at the local mosque which all tell them that the infidel is never to even be their friend.

How many imams in Cronulla are trained or financed by the extremely intolerant Wahhabi sect in Saudi Arabia?

Here's an account of an event which ought to tell you how "besieged" the Muslims feel, from the above link:

"AN EXAMPLE of the confrontations police nearly always experienced in Muslim-dominated areas when confronting even the most minor of crimes is an incident that occurred in 2001 in Auburn. Two uniformed officers stopped a motor vehicle containing three well known male offenders of Middle Eastern origin, on credible information via the police radio that indicated that the occupants of the vehicle had been involved in a series of break-and-enters. What occurred during the next few hours can only be described as frightening.

When searching the vehicle and finding stolen property from the break-and-enter, the police were physically threatened by the three occupants of the car, including references to tracking down where the officers lived, killing them and “fucking your girlfriends”. The two officers were intimidated to the point of retreating to their police car and calling for urgent assistance. When police back-up arrived, the three occupants called their associates via their mobile phones, which incidentally is the Middle Eastern radio network used to communicate amongst gangs. Within minutes as many as twenty associates arrived as well as another forty or so from the street where they had been stopped. As further police cars arrived, the Middle Eastern males became even more aggressive, throwing punches at police, pushing police over onto the ground, threatening them with violence and damaging police vehicles.

When the duty officer arrived, he immediately ordered all police back into their vehicles and they retreated from the scene. The stolen property was not recovered. No offender was arrested for assaulting police or damaging police vehicles.
"

Yeah, that's a siege mentality all right.  Not!

One observer opined that the beach incident was an attempt by the Muslims to establish the beach as a "no-go" area for other Australians, especially the ones who let their women dress "immodestly".  If you had any sense, you'd photograph the thugs who go around calling women "whores" for wearing a bikini, arrest them and deport them.  They've obviously decided that they'd rather be in the Dar al Islam, and it's silly (not to mention dangerous) to let them pretend that such extends to Australia.

E-P -

Call down and take a few deep breaths. And then go and watch the "Power of Nightmares" documentary I go on about occasionally.

You sound like you've been reading too much Free Republic - I suspect there is no more truth to rumours of a sinister islamic plot to infilitrate and take over the western world than there was in the old "protocols of the elders of zion" stuff in the past (or other modern day theories like Dick Cheney personally being behind 9/11).

At the end of the day genuine islamic extremism is largely only attractive to a lunatic fringe and I'm sure that the intelligence services are capable of identifying them and dealing with them (and this fringe would be even smaller if we didn't have troops in Iraq).

All that article you linked to said was what I'd already said - there is a gang problem in parts of south west Sydney. Its not new and its not news and its a policing problem - and the NSW police are quite capable of solving it.

Trying to frame this whole thing as a "clash of civilisations" style confrontation between different religious groups is off the mark.

For starters - to answer your question - there are no mosques in Cronulla and I doubt there are any in the entire "shire" (which is still a very heavily anglo-celtic area).

Surf nazi gangs have been fighting various inland gangs who venture to the beach for decades - just because the latest contestants come from a middle eastern country doesn't make it a religious war or terrorist threat.

Both groups are just thugs and I'm sure a lot of them will be locked up in the coming weeks by the cops and tempers will subside - so long as there isn't continuing politically motivated fanning of the flames.

I hope you're sensible enough not to get drawn into that sort of nonsense...

I stay away from anything that even looks like a Freeper, and anyone who takes WND seriously.... feh!

Nope, I'm taking this straight from Australia:

"Unless you live in an area like Cronulla, Brighton-Le-Sands or Bondi, you have no idea what it is like to have one's suburb regularly inundated with large groups of young Muslim men from the western suburbs who proceed to shoot people [as has happened in Brighton], intimidate people, regularly threaten people within their vicinity with violence, drive around in large groups screaming abuse at people from cars with their music blaring, regularly brawling, etc."

Also the Times of London, and sources reporting about events in France, Sweden, Denmark and Holland.  Talk of "no-go" areas is a common element between all of them.  Common thugs don't want areas ethnically or religiously cleansed; these ones do.

The police should have been knocking heads from the beginning.  The first episode of stone-throwing should have produced a massive response.  Assaults upon police making arrests require gunfire, not retreat.  I don't see relief in sight until you Aussies decide that talk therapy doesn't work.

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